Posted by
CCBlogger on Friday, August 24, 2007 12:16:23 PM
Update: Here is a picture I quickly snapped during my last visit at NPR's Tell Me More with Michelle Martin.
I just got out of the NPR studios in DC where I was with host Michelle Martin discussing Obama's Miami Herald op-ed on the Cuba embargo, the South Florida Cuban American vote, and other political subjects.
You can listen to the
audio clip of the segment of Tell Me More.Tell Me More, August 24, 2007 · In this week's political chat, Bloggers Marisa Trevino, of
LatinaLista.net, and Josue Sierra of
Townhall.com
discuss Sen. Barack Obama's pronouncements on Cuba policy, which White
House hopefuls are confirmed to attend a fall presidential forum
sponsored by the Spanish-language television network,
Univision and, overall, what the candidates must do to appeal to Latino voters.
On the subject of Obama's Miami Herald op-ed and the Cuba embargo, check out
Babalublog.com for real good analysis of the South Florida community and voting trends. I pretty much voiced Henry Gomez's perspective on Obama's op-ed ( I learn from the masters on the subject, since I haven't lived in Miami for quite a few years now).
I just realized that the strategy is not about getting Cuban-Americans
to vote for the Democratic candidate next November, it's about getting
Cuban-American Democrats to vote for Barack Obama in the Florida primary
in January. Obama has staked out a position that differentiates himself
from Hillary Clinton who is the front runner and therefore being more
cautious in her approach.
Henry is predicting that Hillary has the campaign in the bag. I'm not a political science expert, but it does seem that way to me as well.
The dialoguero
Cuban-Americans will vote for the candidate that represents most change
from the current policy. If they perceive that that's Obama, they'll
vote for him. But in November you can't lose votes you never had.
Hard-liners and Republicans aren't going to vote for Clinton or Obama
anyway so it's a smart move on Obama's part but as I said, Clinton has
this thing in the bag.
Matt Lewis thought this was a gaff by Obama, but reading Henry's perspective, as well as today's
The New York Sun's op-ed in response to Obama, I would have to disagree. I don't think its going to help him in South Florida, but it certainly was better than nothing and certainly not a slip up. At the very least, it will get him a few more Democrat votes and it certainly got him some airtime and attention.
Mr. Obama's debate remarks
might have been an accidental blunder, but it's harder to pass off an
op-piece under the candidate's byline as some sort of gaffe. On a trip
to South Africa
last year, Obama said that the struggle against apartheid there was an
inspiration for his own political career. As the Cuban Liberty Council
said in a statement this week, it's too bad Mr. Obama doesn't see the
parallel between the struggle for democracy in Cuba and the one in
South Africa, where economic sanctions helped bring about historic
change of the sort that is dreamed of by Cubans from Miami to Havana.
Henry broke down the numbers on a recent FIU poll of
Cuban-American voting trends. You can read the post here.
As I analyzed that
situation I realized that Obama's advisers probably used data from that
FIU poll of Cuban-Americans to devise the strategy. They noticed one of the "disconnects" in the data.
So the Democrats have their work cut out for them. In my opinion, they
need to fight the natural tendency for the recent arrivals to somewhat
change their views over time, they need to get them their citizenship
faster, convince them to register to vote, and then go against the
trend of registering Republican and finally getting them to vote for a
Democratic candidate. Could it happen? Sure. I'm not holding my breath.
"El Conductor" said it best.